I proposed the draft Small Flocker's Plan to replace SM just 4 days ago, to surgically remove the SM parasite from the neck of Canadians.
In the 2 days hence, SMI provided me confirming support for the SM problems and the denial of those problems by SM's leadership.
Yesterday, I received some feedback from a different person, a SM industry insider and observer of SM and this Blog. They were somewhat reluctant to adding in their two cents. We will refer to this informed Supply Management observer as "SMO".
SMO believes SMI and I are correct about the SM Leader's denial of the chronic problems inside SM systems. SMO believes there is significant resistance to change within the SM leadership.
SMO believes that any loss of SM protection for Canada's SM markets will immediately drop to the net profit (loss) line of producers and processors. SMO believes that a small drop in sale prices will produce a huge drop in the net profits, probably driving it negative, into loss territory.
Remember how GM lost money on every car it made for about a decade, but the financing arm GMAC consistently made money, keeping GM afloat; then all of a sudden in June 2009, it came to an end, and GM was bankrupt.
SMO believes that as profits decline, the SM club rules won't be respected. This has been occurring for some time now. Witness the Magical Trucks of Chicken and the smuggling of chicken into Canada, that I have previously Blogged about.
Another sign of the unraveling of SM is the in-fighting at the CFC (Chicken Farmers of Canada) board meetings has been getting worse and worse. Today, CFC board meetings make the Middle East powder keg look like a church picnic. BC's Farm Industry Review Board, in their chronic desperation has recently appealed to the Farm Products Council of Canada to act as a marriage counselor for all the provincial representatives sitting at the CFC Board table.
Unfortunately, there are already many other signs of SM's unraveling.
In the recent Jame Bond movie Skyfall, the villain discussed what happened on an island infested with rats:
"My grandmother had an island when I was a boy. Nothing to boast of, you could walk along it in an hour. But still, it was - it was a paradise for us. One summer, we came for a visit and discovered the whole place had been infested with rats. They'd come on a fishing boat and had gorged themselves on coconut. So how do you get rats off an island, hmm? My grandmother showed me. We buried an oil drum, and hinged the lid. Then we wired coconut to the lid as bait. The rats come for the coconut, and... [imitates metallic scuttering.] They fall into the drum, and after a month, you've trapped all the rats. But what did you do then? Throw the drum into the ocean? Burn it? No. You just leave it. And they begin to get hungry, then one by one... [imitates rat munching sound.] They start eating each other, until there are only two left. The two survivors. And then what - do you kill them? No. You take them, and release them into the trees. Only now, they don't eat coconut anymore. Now they will only eat rat. You have changed their nature."We will soon witness more and more, the SM Rats will begin to feed upon themselves, turning cannibalistic on their fellow SM'ers.
SMO also said that eventually some province will break away. Note that Alberta has already given notice that they want out of SM for chicken. Based on the letter referenced above, is BC that far behind? If you're missing a few key provinces in your supposedly national SM system for chicken, is it really all that "national"?
As chicken unravels, do you think those events and tactics in chicken will have an impact on the other 4 SM products (ie. dairy, eggs, hatcheries, and turkey)? As these other 4 SM industries reflect back, will that produce a feedback response within the chicken side?
SMO suggests that once one province is free from the shackles that attach them to the walls of their SM velvet prison, the pent-up demand and liberating freedom will cause the reformed SM'ers to start ramping up production rates to take advantage of the sales opportunities found in all the remaining SM-provinces.
I agree with SMO. I believe the unreformed SM'ers are half asleep, or "fat, dumb, and happy" in their SM-induced drugged state. I also think that the SM-provinces and their Achilles' Heel of low efficiency, high price, and decades of inter-provincial resentment caused and magnified by SM will soon blow up the entire SM system in one quick, catastrophic explosion. When an explosion occurs, a lot of people can get hurt, and it will be the same for an SM system explosion.
The time to defuse the SM bomb is now. Who will cut the SM bomb wires before the clock reaches zero and the explosion occurs?
Once the explosion occurs, the SM wars will begin. Each SM supplier will seek alliances with other suppliers, or with their friendly producers. Many alliances and factions will quickly form, then dissolve, and reappear in a different configuration. There will be treachery and long knives within the SM ranks. Everybody in SM will get hurt. The consumer will get some short term benefits as prices drop like a stone, and the inventory for sale on store shelves will alternate between feast and famine. However, eventually everybody loses, especially the consumer. Those from outside our province, or from outside Canada, will "come to our rescue", and take advantage of the confusion and the SM Wars. Long term, I'm afraid they won't be any better than our current SM Masters, and will probably be much worse.
Soon, this won't be about SM alone, for soon it will be about saving Canada. Most likely, one of the biggest SM Wars will probably be between Ontario and Quebec. It will likely get very nasty. It could get so bad as to be the match that ignites the fuse on the Separatist's movement again, potentially killing Canada. Remember how close it was last time. SM could push Canada over the cliff. I hope the Powers That Be get really worried, really quick; so worried they decide to take action now. I like Canada. I don't want SM stupidity to be its downfall. Beware! The last thing I want are bragging rights to "I told 'ya so!"
The best alternative is to take surgical, decisive action now, before any of this doomsday scenario could possibly be set in motion.